Elections 2011 Archives - Zapreneur

  • Posted by on June 3, 2011

    The silent majority did not vote! Comparing population estimates with the voter roll

    Over 15 million potentially eligible voters did not cast their vote in the recent local government elections. This analysis compares the mid-year population estimates with the voters role.

    A development worker in Cape Town pointed out that there was a significant gap between the potential number of voters, and those on the voter’s role. It piqued my interest, and I asked a couple more community activists about this. They all confirmed the view that in their areas, the level of voter registration was low. Could this view from the ground be correct? The proposition is that they may exist – in the words of one of the community workers – “an excluded majority” not even on the voters roll. To explore this question, we have compared the voters roll with population estimates.

    In sum, this exploration seeks to find out what proportion of the population are on the voter’s roll. In undertaking this analysis, only official data has been utilised. These are:

    • Indepedent Electoral Commission (IEC) reports on voter turnout by province were generated using the IEC’s report generator;
    • Statistics South Africa’s Mid-Year Population Estimates (2010). The cut-off point in the data is at 20, which means that potential voters between 18 and 20 are not counted in these results. Including 18-20 year olds in the analysis would potentially increase the size of the so-called “silent majority”.
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  • Posted by on May 17, 2011

    Making Local Government Work for the People: South Africa Far Behind International Trendsetters

    [boxleft] This article first appeared on SACSIS

     

     

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    The “toilet wars” have made apparent the ridiculousness of the major political parties in South Africa. The Democratic Alliance (DA) even allowed a legal process to work its way up to the Constitutional Court to defend its decision to build unenclosed toilets. On the other hand, the African National Congress (ANC) was quick to wail “mea culpa” when it was found that one of its municipalities had also built unenclosed toilets. The difference in how both parties responded to the public outcry is important and hides a deeper truth.

     

    Some politician sitting somewhere in an office, who probably never visited the site, facilitated the decision making process. In his or her insulated discussion, they would have justified the decision to build open toilets by arguing that more toilets could be built within the budget, or that an open flush toilet is more sustainable than a pit latrine in the long-term.

    The alternative explanation is that local councils, even large metropolitan councils, lack the ability to carefully evaluate project plans and approve projects with an accurate understanding of the details of each project.  It leads to a situation where municipal governments are genuinely surprised to find out that projects are completed “to spec” and that the specification does not specify the building of walls around a toilet. Sadly, any student of “development” will recognise this as another tale of significant silliness by bureaucrats and politicians. It leaves us all with that incredulous feeling asking “What where they thinking?” or responding with acronyms such as “WTF!”

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  • Posted by on May 16, 2011

    Is Cape Town or Johannesburg the best metropolitan government in South Africa?

    Political parties have been arguing that the city they govern is the best run in South Africa. A cold hard look at available data shows that there is not much difference between Johannesburg and Cape Town, who occupy the first or second spot in most indices. There is thus no definitive answer to the question, as to which metropolitan municipal government is the best, however voters should be circumspect in assessing the claims of political parties. The argument that Cape Town is exceptional however does not have a solid backing from the data reviewed.

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